NUCLEAR STABILITY AT LOW NUMBERS

Chinese writings on the workings of nuclear stability, deterrence, and coercion are thin and politicized. Nevertheless, it is possible to glean, from direct and inferential evidence, rather pessimistic conclusions regarding Chinese views of nuclear stability at low numbers. While China has been living with low numbers in its own arsenal for decades, today it views missile defense and advanced conventional weapons as the primary threat to nuclear stability. More generally, China views nuclear stability as wedded to political amity. Because none of these would be directly addressed through further US and Russian arsenal reductions, China is unlikely to view such reductions as particularly stabilizing. While there is little in Chinese writing to suggest lower US and Russian numbers would encourage a “race to parity,” there are grounds to worry about China becoming more assertive as it gains confidence in Beijing's own increasingly secure second-strike forces.     

Transforming Mexico’s energy field: the intended consequences of a drug war

ABSTRACT

By utilizing the theory of Strategic Action Fields (SAFs), the present article explains how a new meso-level social order seems to have emerged in Mexico as a result of the paramilitarization of organized crime, militarization of security, and the opening of Mexico’s energy sector to private investment. This work describes the transformation of Mexico’s energy field after a process of major constitutional and economic changes that were the consequence of a security crisis and an agenda of energy reform for which the so-called ‘drug war’ was a key underlying foundation.     

熵、信息与战略欺骗

熵最初用于描述宏观物理系统的热力学状态,之后被广泛应用于控制论、概率论、数论、天体物理、生命科学等领域,但是在军事领域的应用研究还很少。以熵、信息等基本概念为基础探讨军事领域中在战略欺骗方面的应用,通过对战略欺骗的热力学分析,提出了负信息馈送原理,并给出了两种实施战略欺骗的操作技术。     

战略联盟中知识转移影响因素概念模型构建：网络角度的思考

根据知识转移的一般过程,从社会网络视角出发,不同于以往研究中二元维度的分析,从网络结点能力、网络关系和认知、网络结构三个维度提出了影响战略联盟网络组织中知识转移绩效的关键影响因素,并深入分析各个关键因素的细分变量对知识转移绩效的影响作用机理,最后提出战略联盟网络知识转移影响因素的相关假设和概念模型,为下一步对假设的验证做铺垫。     

爱民固边的战略思维论要

爱民固边战略是＂十一五＂时期公安边防部队在建设社会主义和谐社会中的一项重大战略部署。＂十二五＂时期,形势任务更加严峻,必须进一步找准爱民固边是促进边境经济社会发展的新型人民战争的战略定位,完善以战略目的、战略原则、战略力量、战略措施为主要内容的战略架构体系,有效探索＂爱民—固边—发展—固边—利民＂的战略路线图,突出＂维稳主导、服务民生、强基固本、多元联动＂等战略重点,坚持＂并轨发展、标本兼治、无缝对接＂基本战略路径,使爱民固边战略更加系统化、规范化,纵深推进,打造公安边防特有品牌,不断产生更大的政治社会价值。     

经济视野的新时期军事安全战略

经济全球化深刻影响和改变了世界经济、政治、军事安全形势,促使我们探索新时期的国家军事安全战略。本文试图由经济视角透视新时期军事安全战略,简要分析了经济全球化背景下我国军事安全面临的挑战,强调经济安全是新时期军事安全战略的立足点和重要战略目标,并探讨了经济软实力作为非战争军事斗争方式的运用及经济全球化影响下的新时期军事安全战略的特征。     

论我国海上执法力量的整合与构建

我国现行的海上执勤执法体制存在种种弊端,国家迫切需要建立一支近能管理、远能维权、平战结合的海上执法力量及其管理机构,以此来抵御非军事入侵、维护海洋权益和实施海洋管理。运用科学发展观和比较分析法,提出从战略发展、与国际接轨、依法治国和整合成本四个方面,构建我国以海警为主的海上执法力量。     

战略机遇期公共消防安全热点解析

在重要战略机遇期,消防工作保障和服务经济社会发展的作用更加凸显。在研判重要战略机遇期的消防安全形势任务的基础上,从解决制约消防工作的体制性、机制性和保障性问题入手,提出了加强和改革消防工作的对策措施。     

Reconciling strategic studies … with itself: a common framework for choosing among strategies

Three distinct, and seemingly irreconcilable, schools of thought are identified within the strategic studies literature. One which searches for “universal principles of war,” a second, “context-dependent,” approach that seeks to embed each instance of warfare within its concurrent social, political, technological milieu and, finally a “paradoxical logic” school, which equates strategy with the generation of uncertainty. The author offers some intuitive concepts from non-cooperative game theory to develop a “dominate-mix” approach to strategy choice. In doing so, he helps to reconcile these disparate approaches and provides a simple framework to assist researchers in framing military decisions as well as to assist planners in choosing among strategies.